My Research is mainly concerned with human judgment and decision making. I have a related interest in Broadcasting Research

I am participating in the dirc project - an EPSRC funded Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration investigating the dependability of computer-based systems.

I am a member of the European Association for Decision Making;  The Society for Judgment and Decision Making and The London Judgment and Decision Making group

Bentley Slides               Footballers' fallacies             Why psychologists know more about economic behaviour

Useful Websites of Decision Researchers:   

Dan Ariely (MIT) Jonathan Baron (University of Pennsylvania)  Colin Camerer (California Institute of Technology)  Dan Gilbert (Harvard)   Christopher.Hsee (Chicago)  George Loewenstein (Carnegie-Mellon)   Al Roth (Harvard)    Richard Thaler (Chicago)  

            

Some Information on Social Science Journal Impact Factors                                   

                                                                                    

                                                                                            Selected Publications

                        Papers

Ayton, P. (1982). The processing of metaphor. Working Papers of the London Psycholinguistics Research Group, 4, 5-10.

Ayton, P.J., Jonckheere, A.R., Le Voi, M.E., McClelland, A.G.R. and Rawles, R.E. (1982). An experimental comparison of models of multiple cued recall. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society, 35, 211

Le Voi, M.E., Ayton, P.J., Jonckheere, A.R., McClelland, A.G.R. and Rawles, R.E. (1983). Unidimensional memory traces: On the analysis of multiple cued recall. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 22, 560-576.

Ayton, P. (1983). The unemployed in a local library. IMPRINT: Journal of the Society of Publishers, April 1983, 7-10. 

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1985). The evidence for interactionism in Psychology: A reply to Furnham and Jaspars. Personality and Individual Differences, 6, 509-512.

Wright, G., Ayton, P. and Whalley, P. (1985). A general purpose computer aid to judgmental forecasting: Rationale and procedures. Decision Support Systems, 1, 333-340.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1985). Judging the likelihood of future events. Current Research, 3, 148.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1985).Thinking with probabilities. Teaching Statistics, 7, 37-40.

Wright, G., Ayton, P. and Whalley, P. (1985). FORECAST: A general purpose computer aid to judgmental forecasting. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments and Computers, 17, 515-517.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1986).Persons, situations, interactions and error: Consistency, variability and confusion. Personality and Individual Differences, 7, 233-235. 

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1986).The psychology of forecasting. Futures, 18, 420-439.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P.  (1986). Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to Fischhoff and MacGregor. Journal of Forecasting, 5, 117-123.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Task influences on judgmental forecasting. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 28, 115-127.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1987). Assessing and improving judgmental probability forecasts. OMEGA: International Journal of Management Science, 15, 191-196.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. Tests for randomness? (1987). Teaching Mathematics and its Applications, 6, 83-87.

Wright, G., Ayton, P. and Fowler, C. (1987). The psychological dependence of research format and type of statistical analysis. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 18, 119-125.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Immediate and short-term judgmental forecasting: Personologism, situationism or interactionism? Personality and Individual Differences, 9, 109-120.

Ayton, P. and McClelland, A. (1987). The Despicable Doctor Fischer's (Bayesian) Bomb Party. Teaching Mathematics and its Applications, 6, 179-183.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Eliciting and modeling expert knowledge. Decision Support Systems, 3, 13-26.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1988). Decision time, subjective probability and task difficulty. Memory and Cognition, 16, 176-185.

Ayton, P. (1988). Perceptions of broadcast weather forecasts. Weather, 43, 193-197.

Wright, G., Saunders, C. and Ayton, P. (1988). The consistency, coherence and calibration of decomposed and recomposed subjective probability forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 7, 185-199.

Ayton, P., Hunt, A. and Wright, G. (1989). Psychological conceptions of randomness. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, 221-238.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1989). Judgmental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 117-125.                

Ayton, P., Hunt, A. and Wright, G. (1991). Randomness and reality Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4, 222-226.

Wright, G and Ayton, P. (1992). Judgmental Forecasting in the immediate and medium term. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,  51, 344-363.

Ayton, P. (1993) Base-rate neglect: An inside view of judgment? Psycoloquy, 4(63), base-rate.5.ayton

Ayton, P and Harvey, N. (1994).  Inappropriate Judgements:  Slips, mistakes or violations?  Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 12.

Ayton, P.  (1995). Risk measures expressed as frequencies may have a more rational response.  British Medical Journal, 310, 1269.

Ayton, P. and Pascoe, E. (1995). Bias in Cognitive Judgements?  Knowledge Engineering Review, 10, 21-41.

Ayton, P. (1996) An ambiguous figure in the real world.  Perception, 25, 619

Ayton, P. and Hardman, D.K. (1997) The StAR Risk Adviser: Psychological  Arguments for Qualitative Risk Assessment  In Redmill, F.  (Ed) Safety Critical Systems.  Springer-Verlag.  

Hardman, D.K. and Ayton, P.  (1997) Arguments for qualitative risk assessment: the StAR risk adviser.  Expert Systems, 14, 24-36.

Ayton, P. and Hardman, D.  (1997) Are two rationalities better than one?  Current Psycholoy of Cognition, 16, 39-51.

Ayton, P. and McClelland, A.G.R. (1997) How real is overconfidence?  Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 279-285.

Harvey, N., Koehler, D. and Ayton, P. (1997)  Actor-observer differences in judgmental  probability forecasting of control response efficacy. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 267-282.

Ayton, P.  (1997) How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers’ odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72, 99-115.

Linney, Y.M., Peters, E.R. and Ayton, P. (1998) Reasoning biases in delusion prone individuals.  British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 37, 285-302.

Ayton, P., Ferrell, W.R.and Stewart, T.R. (1999) Commentaries on ''The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis'' by Rowe and Wright International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 377-381.

Arkes, H.R. and Ayton, P. (1999) The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational than Lower Animals?  Psychological Bulletin, 125, 591-600.

Ayton, P., Ranyard, R., and Timmermans, D. (1999) Introduction to Selected proceedings of the 16th Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making. Journal Of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 91-92.

Ayton, P. (2000) Are the birds and bees in need of cognitive reform?  Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 666-667.

Dhami, M. and Ayton, P. (2001) Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way.  Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14, 141-168.

Kerstholt, J. and Ayton, P. (2001) Should NDM change our understanding of Decision Making? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 14, 370-371

Ayton, P. and Tumber, H. (2001) The rise and fall of perceived bias at the BBC. Intermedia, 29(4) 12-15.

E. Alberdi, A. Povyakalo, L. Strigini, P. Ayton. (2003) Does incorrect computer prompting affect human decision making? A case study in mammography, International Congress Series (Proceedings of CARS 2003: Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery, (H.U. Lemke, M.W. Vannier, K. Inamura, A.G. Farman, K. Doi and J.H.C. Reiber, Eds.), vol. 1256, pp. 938-943, 2003.

Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2004). Effects of Incorrect CAD Output on Human Decision Making in Mammography. Academic Radiology. 11, 909-918 . (Winner of the 2005 Herbert M. Stauffer Award for Best Clinical Paper. The Association of University Radiologists. http://www.aur.org/stauffer.html).

Ayton, P. and Fischer, I. (2004). The Hot Hand Fallacy and the Gambler’s Fallacy: Two faces of Subjective Randomness? Memory & Cognition, 32, 1369-1378. <download pdf>.

Wright, C. and Ayton, P. (2005) Focusing on what might happen and how it could feel: Can the anticipation of regret change students' computing-related choices? International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 62, 759-783

Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L., Ayton, P., Hartswood, M., Procter, R. and Slack, R.  (2005).The use of Computer Aided Detection tools in screening mammography: A multidisciplinary investigation. British Journal of Radiology.78, S31-S40.

Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., Loewenstein, G., & Ayton, P. (2006). Prisoners’ positive illusions of their post-release success. Law and Human Behavior, 30, 631-647.

Ayton, P., Pott, A. and Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective Forecasting: Why can’t people predict their emotions? Thinking and Reasoning, 13, 62 – 80.

Dhami, M.K., Ayton, P. and Loewenstein, G.  (2007). Adaptation to Imprisonment: Indigenous or Imported? Criminal Justice & Behavior, 34, 1085-1100.

Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L., Ayton, P. and Given-Wilson, R. (2008). CAD in mammography: lesion-level vs. case-level analysis of the effects of prompts on human decisions. International Journal of Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery, 3, 115-122.

Falk, R., Falk, R. and Ayton, P. (2009). Subjective Patterns of Randomness and Choice: Some Consequences of Collective Responses. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 35, 203–224.

Walsh, E. and Ayton, P. (2009). What Would it be Like for Me and for You? Judged Impact of Chronic Health Conditions on Happiness. Medical Decision Making, 29, 15-22.

Kusev, P., van Schaik, P., Ayton, P., Dent, J. & Chater, N. (2009). Exaggerated Risk: Prospect Theory And Probability Weighting In Risky Choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 1487-1505 .

Walsh, E. and Ayton, P. (2009). My Imagination Versus Your Feelings: Can Personal Affective Forecasts Be Improved by Knowing Other Peoples' Emotions? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 15, 351-360.

Broomhead, R., Marks, R. and Ayton, P. (2010). Confirmation of the ability to ventilate by facemask prior to administration of neuromuscular blocker: a non-instrumental piece of information? British Journal of Anaesthesia, 14, 313-317.

 

Book chapters

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds) (1987). Judgmental Forecasting. Chichester and New York: Wiley.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). The psychology of forecasting. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds) Judgmental Forecasting. Chichester and New York: Wiley, 1987.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). The use of probability axioms for evaluating and improving forecasts. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P. and Cropper, S.A. (Eds) Operational Research and the Social Sciences, New York: Plenum, 1989.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1989). Gateways for judgment in statistical forecasting models. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P. and Cropper, S.A. (Eds) Operational  Research and the Social Sciences, New York: Plenum, 1989.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1990). Biases in probabilistic judgement: A historical review. In Caverni, J. (Ed) Cognitive Biases. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1990.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1990). Uncertain memories: Evaluating the competence of probabilistic cognition. In Caverni, J. (Ed) Cognitive Biases. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1990.

Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In, Wright, G. and Bolger, F. (Eds) Expertise and Decision Support, London: Plenum, 1992.

Wright, G and Ayton, P. (1994) Subjective probability. Chichester: Wiley.

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1994) Subjective Probability: What should we believe? In, Wright, G and Ayton, P. Subjective probability. Chichester: Wiley.

Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1996) Understanding and Communicating Risk: A Psychological Overview.  In Redmill, F.  (Ed) Safety Critical Systems.  Springer-Verlag.  

Ayton, P. Wright, G. and Rowe, G. (1997) Medical Decision Making. In A. Baum, C. McManus, J. Weinman and R. West (eds) Cambridge Handbook of Psychology, Health and Medicine, Cambridge University Press.

Rowe, G., Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1997) Judgment and Decision Making.  In A. Baum, C. McManus, J. Weinman and R. West (eds) Cambridge Handbook of Psychology, Health and Medicine, Cambridge University Press.

Ayton, P. and Hardman, D.K. (1997) Psychological Arguments For Qualitative Approaches To Risk and Uncertainty.  In  Olazaran, M. (Ed) Social Shaping of Technology.  San Sebastian: University of Bilbao Press.

Ayton, P.  (1998) Why does psychology need methodology?  In Nunn, J. Laboratory Psychology:  A student’s guide.  London: Erlbaum.

Ayton, P.  (1998) Experimental versus correlational approaches  In Nunn, J. Laboratory Psychology:  A student’s guide.  London: Erlbaum.

Ayton, P.  (1998) How bad is human judgment?  In Wright, G. and Goodwin, P.  (Eds)  Forecasting with Judgment.  Chichester: Wiley.  

Ayton, P. (2001).  Contributing author to Chapter 2.6. Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment. In McCarthy, J.J. Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken D.J. and White, K.S. (Eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, U.S.A. and Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.

Hardman, D., and Ayton, P. (2004). Argumentation and decisions. In Smith, K.,  Shanteau, J. and Johnson, P. (Eds.), Psychological investigations of competence in decision making. (pp163-187) Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.  

Ayton, P. (2005) Judgment and Decision-Making. In Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. (Eds) Cognitive Psychology.  Oxford University Press.

Harries, C. and Ayton, P.  (2007) Medical Decision Making. In S. Ayers, A. Baum, C. McManus, S. Newman, K. Wallston, J. Weinman & R. West (Eds) Cambridge Handbook of Psychology, Health and Medicine (2nd Edition).  Cambridge UK : Cambridge University Press.

Kysar, D.A., Ayton, P., Frank, R.H., Frey, B.S., Gigerenzer, G., Glimcher, P.W., Korobkin, R., Langevoort , D.C. and Magen, S. (2006). Are heuristics a problem or a solution?  In C. Engel and G. Gigerenzer, eds (2006) Heuristics and the Law: Dahlem Workshop Report 94. Cambridge , MA.: The MIT Press.   

Ayton, P.  (2005). Subjective Probability And Human Judgment.  In B. Everitt and D. Howell (Eds)  Encyclopedia of Behavioral Statistics.  Chichester : Wiley.

Ayton, P and Braennberg, A. (2008) Fallacies in Footballers. In Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (Eds) “Myths and facts about football: The economics and psychology of the world’s greatest sport”. Cambridge Scholars press.

Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (Eds) 2008). “Myths and facts about football: The economics and psychology of the world’s greatest sport”. Cambridge Scholars press.

Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2010). Automation Biases in CAD-assisted Decision Making. pp320-322.  In Samei, E. & Krupinski, E. (Eds) Handbook of Medical Image Perception and Techniques. Cambridge University Press.

Informal articles

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1984). When chance is not such a fine thing. The Guardian, 13th December 1984, p13.

Ayton, P. (1987). Scoring chat tricks The Listener, May 28th, 1987  p29.

Ayton, P.  (1994). Decisions, Decisions (Review of the Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis).  The Times Higher Educational Supplement, May 27th, 1994.

Ayton, P. and Arkes, H. (1998) Call it quits.  New Scientist. 158 (2135), 40-43.

Ayton, P. (1998) Fallacy Football. New Scientist, 159 (2152) (19 September), 52.

Ayton, P. (1999) Fonder memories. New Scientist, Vol. 163 No. 2205, (25 September) 47.

Ayton. P. (1999).  Clear Cut. New Scientist, Vol. 164 No. 2216, (11 December) 47.

Ayton. P. (2000). Ditherer’s Dilemma. New Scientist, Vol.165 no.2225  (12 February) 47.

Ayton. P. (2000). Trouble ahead. New Scientist, Vol.166 no.2236  (29th April) 47.

Ayton, P.  (2000). Lies I tell myself New Scientist, Vol 167 (No 2247) (July 15th) 45.

Ayton, P.  (2000). If you’re happy and you know it New Scientist, Vol 167 (No 2254) (September 2nd) 45.

Ayton, P.  (2000). You can’t argue with that. New Scientist, Vol 168, (No. 2266) (November 25th, 51

Arkes, H. R., & Ayton, P. (2000). Think like a dog. Psychology Today, 33(1), 10-11.

Ayton, P. (2001) Regrets I’ve had a few… New Scientist, Vol 169, (No. 2284) (March 31st), 45.

Ayton, P. (2001) Don’t talk to me now! New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2290) (May 12th), 49.

Ayton, P. (2001) Why vote? New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2292) (June 2nd), 49.

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